Marcia Brown Mintz
Senior Advisor
What-if thinking by whatever name or method is a key element of robust planning and implementing change. Whether developing a strategy for the future, designing a project, or advancing institutional change, intentionally considering what-ifs informs choices about how best to move forward. What you learn by asking “what if” equips you to strengthen the planning and respond more nimbly when circumstances inevitably shift. By exploring different scenarios and potential outcomes, you can test your plan by imagining and anticipating risks and opportunities and evaluating the impacts and ripple effects of different assumptions.
Asking “what if” incorporates creativity to test the rigor and extent of the planning. The testing is more than an exercise to poke holes in the work already done. It is another layer involving thinking “outside the box” by taking inventory, imagining what might go wrong, and confirming what could spell success — all to make the planning more dynamic.
What-if analysis involves collective engagement to surface assumptions about the future, explore multiple scenarios and alternatives, and learn from the potential outcomes. This engagement takes imagination and depends on collaboration and thoughtful debate. There are several proven methods and techniques. Each, in its own way, explores the question — what if the situation or context is or is not what we have assumed thus far in our planning?
At CFAR, we often bring what-if analysis into our work and select among several approaches. Each draws on disciplined activity to consider the likely outcomes of planned change in different ways and from various perspectives. Then, based on what is revealed, our clients can make informed choices about how to proceed with planning and implementation. For example:
- Histories of the Future: What if we truly lived our mission and achieved our goals? Looking back from a point in time in the future, how did we get there?
- Premortem: What if a project or initiative goes wrong or fails? What happened? What could we do to mitigate this outcome?
- Modeling: What if we consider alternative assumptions and extrapolate outcomes expressed and measured in numbers?
- Lessons learned: What if we gain greater awareness and a shared understanding of how things are going? What can we learn from past accomplishments and nonsuccess?
- Table tops: What if we develop greater clarity about interactions, roles, and authority working through scenarios in which we face imagined danger? What we glean can serve well for planning and preparedness to deal with challenging eventualities?
Different approaches match different situations and resonate with different audiences. What-if thinking can inspire and lead you to open further discussion, recognize or surface oversights or omissions, and make adjustments to shore up the plan.
Histories of the Future: Focus on Virtues
Histories of the future encourages participants to project themselves into the future and construct rich historical narratives to look at imagined actions, mistakes, successes, moves and countermoves. Then, participants step back and connect current choices to these more complex imagined experiences.
Premortem: Focus on Shortcomings
Unlike a session to discuss what might go wrong, the premortem begins with the assumption that it did. The process is to come up with plausible reasons for the imagined failure. It creates a safe space for anticipating shortfalls in the planning and proposed implementation. The premortem helps avert problems from the start and sensitizes those involved to notice early signs of trouble once implementation is underway.
Modeling: Focus on Relevant Metrics
A spreadsheet model can be used to explore different scenarios and their potential outcomes through numbers and relevant metrics. For example, suppose a plan involves increasing enrollment at a university. In that case, the model can calculate and keep track of projected ripple effects represented in the faculty-student ratio, class size, student services ratios, housing capacity, net tuition and financial aid, and more.
Lessons Learned: Focus on Operations
Information gleaned from operational failures, even those that motivated the change (as well as from successes), can be carried forward. What if we take action to reduce the likelihood of repeating or continuing what has not worked well? Answering relies on directly addressing undercurrents to gain greater awareness and shared understanding of the underlying causes or reasons for existing difficulties.
Table Tops: Focus on Resilience and Group Dynamics
Table top exercises are useful for exploring group dynamics and plans’ sturdiness in the context of challenging external circumstances. Working together through imagined problematic scenarios, the group can discover deficiencies in planning and proposed implementation and ensure that all involved parties are aware of their roles and authority, at least with respect to facing imagined circumstances.
What-if thinking is a powerful technique for making better decisions and shaping robust planning. By exploring different scenarios and their potential outcomes, you can identify potential risks and opportunities, evaluate the impact of different decisions, and make informed choices – all steps that strengthen planning and implementing change.